The Birth Dearth in Iran

July 22, 2008 at 2:27 pm | Posted in Economics | Leave a comment

As a followup to my recent post on fertility rates, I invite you to read an interesting rebuttal that Jonathan Last has written in response to Philip Jenkinsobservations (no, I don’t have a subscription either) on the drastic consequences of Iran’s plummeting fertility rate.

While Jenkins sees a rosy future secularist paradise, Last predicts an increasingly confrontational Iran as it tries to hold onto its visions of a revived Persian empire.  So far, the recent actionsof Ahmadinejad  and friends seem to give credence to Last over the first. 

Iran is not the monolithic power that many make it out to be — the populace is growing increasingly restless at their country’s rapid decline, and the clock is probably ticking on the current regime.  This probably explains why Washington and Israel seem to be content with idle chit-chat in place of serious diplomacy — like Jenkins and Last, they know that time is on their side.  Meanwhile, Iran is probably racing through all its nuclear options to try to shift the playing field before the clock runs out.

In the meantime, there are also those who trumpet Iran’s difficulties as a model for the rest of the world to follow.  Don’t worry, we’ll all get there sooner or later….

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